Actuals

Overview

Step 8 is different from Steps 1 through 7. Steps 1 through 7 are one-time setup steps — you configure them once and occasionally revisit to edit. Step 8 is used throughout your entire trial. You will return here regularly to log actual recruitment data and inventory levels as your trial progresses.

Steps 1 through 7 build a forecast: "If everything goes as planned, here is what demand will look like." Step 8 captures reality: "Here is what actually happened."

There are two types of actuals in Prognosis:

• Recruitment Actuals — Real patient enrollment data: how many patients were actually enrolled, on what dates, in which countries, and for which treatment arms and cohorts
• Inventory Actuals — Real kit inventory data: what kits are physically sitting at each depot, their quantities, expiry dates, and lot numbers

When you enter actuals, Prognosis recalculates your forecast using real data for the historical period and projects forward based on actual trends. Without actuals, your forecast remains a static best guess made at the start of the trial.

Key Differences from Steps 1 through 7

Enabling Actuals Tracking

At the top of the step, two independent toggles control which types of actuals you track:

Both default to off. Enable one or both depending on what data you want to track. Neither is required to complete the wizard — you can proceed with both toggles off.

How the UI adapts:

Warning: If you disable a toggle after entering data, Prognosis will permanently delete all data for that section. A confirmation dialog warns you before this happens. This action cannot be undone.

Recruitment Actuals

When you enable Real-Time Recruitment, you see an accordion-based data entry grid organized by country.

Layout

Each country from your trial appears as a collapsible accordion section. The accordion header displays:

• Country name with flag
• Date range badge showing the First Patient In (FPI) and Last Patient In (LPI) dates from Step 2
• Patient count badge showing the running total against the configured limit (e.g., "45 / 100 Patients"). This badge turns red if the total exceeds the limit

Data Entry Fields

Inside each country accordion, a table displays one row per recruitment entry:

• Click Add Recruitment Date to add a new row (defaults to today's date with 1 patient)
• Click the trash icon on any row to delete it
• Rows with validation errors display a light red background

Copying Data Between Countries

If multiple countries have similar enrollment patterns, click the Copy to... button on a country with data, select target countries, and click Copy to Selected (N). Copying replaces any existing data in the target countries.

Validation Rules

• Date range: Recruitment dates must fall between the country's FPI and LPI dates from Step 2
• Patient limit: Total patients for a country must not exceed the configured target. Exceeding the limit shows an error
• Required fields: Treatment arm and recruitment date are required. Actual patients must be at least 1
• Minimum data: If the recruitment toggle is on, you must have at least one recruitment entry to proceed

Inventory Actuals

When you enable Trial Inventory, you see an accordion-based data entry grid organized by depot.

Layout

Each depot from your trial appears as a collapsible accordion section, including central depots, local depots, and depot groups. Each header shows the country badge and depot name.

Data Entry Fields

Inside each depot accordion, a table displays one row per inventory item:

• Click Add Item to [Depot Name] to add a new row
• Click the trash icon on any row to delete it

Copying Data Between Depots

Similar to recruitment, click the Copy to... button on a depot with data, select target depots, and click Copy to Selected (N). Copying replaces any existing items in the target depots.

Validation Rules

• Expiry date: Must be today or a future date
• Quantity: Must be at least 1
• Kit selection: A kit must be selected for each row
• Minimum data: If the inventory toggle is on, you must have at least one inventory item to proceed

How Actuals Feed Back Into Forecasts

When you enter recruitment data, Prognosis recalculates your entire demand forecast:

1. Historical replacement: For dates where you have actual enrollment data, Prognosis uses your real numbers instead of the forecast projection
2. Forward projection: Remaining patients (target minus actuals) are distributed over the remaining recruitment window. If you enrolled more patients than expected early on, the remaining forecast adjusts downward
3. Cohort-aware calculation: If your trial uses cohorts, actuals are matched to the specific cohort. The remaining patients are redistributed over the cohort's remaining enrollment window

Example

Your trial targets 100 patients in the US, enrolled over 6 months:

• Forecast only (no actuals): Prognosis distributes 100 patients across the 6-month window using the configured recruitment pattern
• After entering Month 1 actuals (25 patients): Prognosis records 25 actual patients for Month 1, then distributes the remaining 75 across Months 2 through 6. Since you are ahead of pace, the projected demand curve shifts and you may need kits sooner than originally planned

Impact on Analytics

After entering actuals, the analytics dashboard reflects the updated forecast:

• Demand projections adjust based on actual enrollment pace
• Supply-demand charts overlay actuals on the forecast line
• Risk indicators recalculate (e.g., "At current enrollment pace, kit supply may be insufficient by Month 5")
• Production recommendations update to account for changed demand timing

Completing the Wizard

Step 8 is the final wizard step. When you click Continue:

1. Final validation runs on all entries
2. If both toggles are off, you can proceed without any data
3. If a toggle is on, you must have at least one valid entry in that section
4. On success, the trial is marked as complete and you are taken to the analytics dashboard

"Complete" means the wizard setup is finished — not that the trial has ended. You will continue returning to Step 8 throughout the trial to enter new actuals as enrollment progresses and inventory changes.

Tips

• Start early. Begin entering actuals as soon as your trial starts enrolling patients. Real-time data helps catch supply issues before they become critical.
• Enter data regularly. Update recruitment actuals weekly or monthly, depending on your trial's pace. The more current your data, the more accurate your projections.
• Mistakes are fixable. Click any field to edit it. The forecast recalculates automatically with no penalty for corrections.
• Recruitment actuals are the priority. Enrollment data has the biggest impact on demand forecasting. Inventory tracking is optional but recommended for complete supply chain visibility.
• Check analytics after entering actuals. Visit the analytics dashboard to see how real enrollment compares to your forecast. Use the insights to adjust supply orders proactively.
• Be careful with the toggles. Disabling a toggle deletes all data for that section permanently. Only disable if you are certain you no longer need that data.